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26.7p is the 200 day moving average , that I have as a good barometer of this trend . As RSI cools off and hopefully refuels for the next leg into the 30s .Imagine there's 10MTpa sold at the current off-take price of $145/T. With a (conservative) margin of 70%, that's $1bn of EBITDA.Using the same interest profile that would mean $700m of taxable earnings.This would produce, under the metrics above, after-tax earnings of $2.45bn.
After debt repayments of $180m and even with cap-ex of up to $500m, there'd be $1.77bn potentially distributable to shareholders.
Let's assume Corporation Tax heads back north up to 30% by the time this mine is productive. I'm calculating the repayment of the principle on the debt at $180m.